Filed under: Football(Soccer) | Tags: Arsenal, Chelsea, Football(Soccer), Liverpool, Manchester United, Premiership
Finally there is actually something more concrete to right about; the start of the season. After months of transfer speculation that never materialized and counting down the days until the season starts, alas it is here. This is an exciting year for the premiership at both the top and bottom of the league. With arguably nine candidates for relegation (though in my opinion more like six) and according to some a fifth challenger for the title in Manchester City (though if you’ve read my ten reasons why Arsenal will not be knocked out the top 4 you know I don’t see them as challenging the top 4) looking into the old crystal ball is quite hard. I released my predictions a few days ago and now have set about justifying them, while also breaking down offseason moves and season outlooks. I have broken the league into four categories; Relegation Battle Candidates, Mid-tablers, Europa League, and The Top 4.
The Top 4
(1) Manchester United
After three straight Premiership titles, this season Manchester United looks more vulnerable. With the departures of workhorse forward Carlos Tevez and arguably the best player in the world Cristiano Ronaldo, the biggest question is who will make up for their 23 league goals? The answer of course will not be shock signing Michael Owen or Antonio Valencia. Owen, a worthwhile risk as he is only 29 and clearly still has it (if he makes it from his bed to the pitch without getting injured), cannot and will not be relied upon as a starter. With the personnel currently at United, it will not be too long until they revert back to a 4-4-2 and Owen will be brought on as a 75th minute sparkplug substitute. Valencia on the other hand, is just not a scoring midfielder; he is, however, a great set up midfielder who’s likely to set up a fair amount of opportunities for forwards Dimitar Berbatov and Wayne Rooney. With more freedom, I expect Rooney to walk away with the Premiership’s golden boot. I am aware I have posted my predictions after Steve Fales from downswinging.com but I can assure you I told him the day before we watched Fulham pound FK Vetra at the Cottage’s first taste of European football eleven days ago that Rooney would be the golden boot winner. It will be interesting to see if Federico Macheda impresses enough to keep United formation the same as last year, though I see this as a year where he gets more opportunities and next year will be his breakout year. Gabriel Obertan is a buy for the future, whether he, like the Da Silva twins and other recent youngsters snapped up by United pan out remains to be seen. The team is deeper and younger than Chelsea’s and unless Berbatov fails to show up, Rooney or Vidic and Ferdinand gets injured, I can’t imagine Sir Alex’s men finishing lower than second at worst.
(2) Chelsea
For the third season in a row, it is the start and yet another manager will be walking the sidelines for Chelsea. Carlo Ancelotti is the fifth manager in two calendar years as Roman Abramovich continues to tinker with every manager he over pays. While Ancelotti’s Champions League pedigree cannot be questioned (2003 and 2007 champions with AC Milan), his okay domestic showing (coaching two of the top three teams but only winning one Serie A title) in a weak Italian league emphasizes Abramovich’s motives. Champions League is all Chelsea want, not the premiership. With this in mind and the fact that Chelsea have no starters under 26 that aren’t African (and thus, having questionable birth certificates and looking a lot older than they say they are) and six of the starting rotation on the wrong side of thirty (with a few more fast approaching 30) creates the atmosphere of a window of title opportunity closing fast. Though Yuri Zhirkov is a great addition to a solid team and Daniel Sturridge might one day play for Chelsea other than in the Carling Cup, their presence alone cannot ward off what is likely to be a season where injuries deplete the side. A month to be weary of also is February when the African Nations cup will take Didier Drogba, Salomon Kalou, and Michael Essien away from the team during a point in the season where they will play Arsenal, Everton, and Manchester City. I don’t think they have enough to take the Premiership and Champions League and with the clear goal the Champions League, expect a second place finish in the Premiership at best.
(3) Arsenal
I could talk for days about Arsenal, but I’ll keep it short. Wenger is an amazing manager. Although criticized for his economically friendly transfer market strategy where he usually ends up with more money than he started with, he has kept Arsenal in the top 4 the past four years even after the losses of key players like Dennis Bergkamp, Alexander Hleb, Gilberto, Matthieu Flamini, Ashley Cole, Sol Campbell, Pires, and captains Patrick Veira and Thierry Henry. He has continually found strength in Arsenal’s youth ranks and after four years of a more youthful reconstruction of the team, I think if the players have really matured, Arsenal can win the premiership. We have lost prima-donna Adebayor and the rapidly ageing Toure to make room for a solid young group of strikers and the addition of Thomas Vermaelen. It is easy to forget this team made it to the FA cup and Champion League semi finals, finished fourth and went on a 22 game unbeaten streak (predominately without captain Cesc Fabregas or Andrey Arshavin) and that two seasons ago we were an away win at Old Trafford from winning the league. With Arshavin adjusting on the fly to the English game and to his teammates during the second half of the season and still impressing, now that he is settled he will be quite the force to be reckoned with this season. The injury to Samir Nasri will hurt but will give some time to Denilson to show his progress and impress. If Tomas Rosicky, Theo Walcott, Robin Van Persie and Eduardo can stay healthy, they will add vital depth to a squad that has crumbled at the end due to their lack of it. This is also Nicklas Bendtner’s time to prove his worth; with Adebayor gone no one should be surprised if he scores 15 league goals this season. If any of Denilson, Alexandre Song, Abou Diaby or Aaron Ramsey proves to be a formidable holding midfielder and the team buys another solid defender, I can see this team finishing first. However, I am sick of expecting Wenger to buy someone so I don’t think any new faces will show before the transfer market closes and the back line will run into injury problems leading to a third place finish.
(4) Liverpool
Last year Liverpool surprised us all and had a great season that, with a little more luck, could have seen them take the league title. That was with a healthy Fernando Torres, Steven Gerrard and a happy and strong midfield consisting of Xabi Alonso and Javier Mascherano. I do not think the luck will continue. The loss of Alonso to Real Madrid will impact the team more than they ever imagined. His importance on the pitch cannot be understated. After five years, starting less than 20 games only once (that season he had recurrent metatarsal problems that according to his Real Madrid physical are now a thing of the past), his familiarity and chemistry with the Spanish contingent at Liverpool on the pitch for Spain, most especially with Torres, is irreplaceable. His replacement is the injury prone (and currently injured) Alberto Alquilani. Although Alquilani is three years younger and speaks English, he has only started 41 games over the past three years in all competitions. Italian football is also very different than the rougher Premiership, and the adjustment time (if he’s ever on the pitch) will be longer than the fans would have wanted. The other major addition this summer is Glen Johnson, the England International and former Portsmouth Right Back. I think the back line is Liverpool’s weakness (as it is for most teams) and the attacking defender Johnson will not be the answer. With Alonso gone, Gerrard will have to play more defensive football than he would like to and Johnson will be continuously tested and have to get back. His poor showing in the friendly against Holland Wednesday though not fully typical of his form for England, could be an indicator of what the pressure of playing for a top 4 club in a World Cup year does to him, which is not what the Anfield faithful want to hear about their new seventeen million pound man. Sir Alex will again have the last laugh as Liverpool finish fourth.
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I think that you underestimate Chelsea’s chances at lifting the premiership title. While the focus will be the Champions League, they will not give up on the EPL. While United may look to continue a tradition of winning titles, they simply cannot do it with Berbatov up front. And as more games are played, I think we will see Valencia emerge as the perfect person to set up crosses from the wings to Rooney or make runs into the box. Maybe being a Chelsea fan creates a bias, I still think we can win the double and bring two more pieces of silverware to the Bridge, seeing as we have already won one with the Community Shield. Liverpool and Arsenal should already being sweating with Villa, City and Tottenham looking to make a break into the top 4. Tottenham has already shown its determination against Liverpool with 2 great goals.
Comment by Jon August 17, 2009 @ 9:32 pmGLORY GLORY MAN UNITED.
Landon Donovan has swine flu. Huzzah US Soccer.
Comment by bcapps August 18, 2009 @ 2:28 am